1.0 Overview of Monetary Policy Actions
1.0 货币政策行动概述
The Federal Open Market Committee remains squarely focused on its dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices. At its December 2025 meeting, the Committee enacted two distinct but significant measures designed to navigate a complex economic environment. Notably, these decisions were made with an incomplete set of official statistics, as key federal government data for October and November have been delayed. Facing a gradually cooling labor market and persistent, albeit easing, inflation, the Committee enacted a further reduction in its policy interest rate while simultaneously initiating a technical adjustment to its balance sheet to ensure stability in money markets. These decisions underscore the Committee's strategic, risk-management approach to balancing its goals amid evolving economic conditions.
联邦公开市场委员会始终专注于其双重使命目标：最大化就业和实现价格稳定。在2025年12月的会议上，委员会通过了两项不同但重要的措施，旨在应对复杂的经济环境。值得注意的是，这些决策基于不完整的官方统计数据做出，因为10月和11月的关键联邦政府数据被推迟。面对劳动力市场逐渐降温和持续但有所缓解的通胀，委员会进一步降低政策利率，同时启动资产负债表技术调整以确保货币市场稳定。这些决策凸显了委员会在不断变化的经济形势下平衡目标的战略性和风险管理方法。
Policy Interest Rate Reduction
政策利率降低
The FOMC's primary action was to lower the target range for the federal funds rate, signaling a continued easing of its policy stance.
联邦公开市场委员会的主要行动是下调联邦基金利率的目标区间，表明其政策立场将继续放宽。
• Magnitude of Change: The Committee implemented a reduction of a quarter percentage point
• 变革幅度：委员会实施了四分之一百分点的下调.
• New Target Range: The new target for the federal funds rate is 3 1/2 to 3 3/4%
• 新目标区间：联邦基金利率的新目标为3.5%至3.3/4%.
• Cumulative Adjustment: This marks the third consecutive reduction, bringing the total adjustment to 3/4 of a percentage point over the last three meetings.
• 累计调整： 这是连续第三次减少，使 过去三次会议的总调整达到了 4 分之 3 个百分点 。
Initiation of Treasury Securities Purchases
国债证券购买启动
In a separate action, the Committee announced a new program to purchase government securities. This measure is purely technical and aimed at managing the banking system's liquidity.
在另一项行动中，委员会宣布了一项新的政府证券购买计划。该措施纯属技术性质，旨在管理银行系统的流动性。
• Stated Purpose: The purchases are undertaken "solely for the purpose of maintaining an ample supply of reserves" and are a separate matter from the interest rate decision.
• 声明目的： 购买“仅为维持充足储备供应”，与 利率决策是分开的事项 。
• Asset Focus: The program will focus on shorter-term Treasury securities, mainly Treasury bills
• 资产重点：该项目将重点关注短期国债，主要是国库券.
• Initial Scale: Reserve management purchases are set to begin at $40 billion in the first month
• 初始规模：储备管理采购计划在第一个月开始，金额为400亿美元.
Crucially, the Committee stressed that these purchases "have no implications for the stance of monetary policy." They are an operational tool, not a stimulus measure.
委员会强调，这些采购 “对货币政策立场没有影响”。 它们只是作工具，而非刺激措施。
These policy actions were informed by the Committee's detailed assessment of the latest economic data, which reveals a nuanced picture of the U.S. economy.
这些政策行动基于委员会对最新经济数据的详细评估，揭示了美国经济的细致情况。
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2.0 Economic Assessment and Rationale for Policy Changes
2.0 经济评估与政策变更理由
The FOMC's decisions are grounded in its comprehensive assessment of the U.S. economy's performance relative to its dual mandate. With key government reports for October and November delayed, the following assessment is based on a combination of available official data through September and more recent public and private sector indicators. This view on economic activity, labor market conditions, and inflation collectively formed the rationale for the recent policy easing.
FOMC 的决策基于其对美国经济相对于其双重使命表现的全面评估。由于 10 月和 11 月的关键政府报告推迟，以下评估基于截至 9 月的官方数据及近期公共和私营部门指标的综合分析。这种对经济活动、劳动力市场状况和通胀的看法共同构成了近期政策宽松的理由。
2.1 Economic Activity and Growth
2.1 经济活动与增长
The Committee's overall assessment is that U.S. economic activity continues expanding at a moderate pace. However, this growth is uneven across different sectors of the economy.
委员会的总体评估是，美国经济活动仍以适度速度扩张 。然而，这种增长在经济的不同部门之间并不均衡。
• Consumer Spending: Appears to have "remained solid," providing a key pillar of support for the expansion.
• 消费者支出： 似乎“保持稳健”，为扩张提供了关键支柱。
• Business Fixed Investment: "Has continued to expand," indicating ongoing business confidence and capital expenditure.
• 企业固定投资：“ 持续增长”，显示持续的商业信心和资本支出。
• Housing Sector: In contrast, the housing sector "remains weak," acting as a drag on overall growth.
• 住房行业： 相比之下，房地产行业“依然疲弱”，拖累整体增长。
The FOMC also noted the temporary impact of the recent federal government shutdown, which "has likely weighed on economic activity in the current quarter." The Committee expects these effects to be transient and "mostly offset by higher growth next quarter" as government operations resume.
联邦公开市场委员会还指出，近期联邦政府关门的暂时影响“很可能对本季度的经济活动造成了压力”。委员会预计这些影响是短暂的，并且“随着政府运作恢复，下季度的增长将大幅提升”，并“大多抵消”。
2.2 Labor Market Conditions
2.2 劳动力市场状况
The U.S. labor market is showing clear signs of change, characterized by the Committee as "gradually cooling" and becoming "less dynamic and somewhat softer."
美国劳动力市场显示出明显的变化迹象，委员会将其描述为 “逐渐降温”，变得 “不那么有活力，也变得稍显软弱”。
• Unemployment Rate: The most recent data from September showed the unemployment rate edging up to 4.4%
• 失业率：9月的最新数据显示失业率略升至4.4%.
• Job Gains: The pace of job creation has "slowed significantly since earlier in the year." A good part of this slowing likely reflects a decline in the growth of the labor force due to lower immigration and labor force participation, though labor demand has clearly softened as well.
• 就业增长： 就业创造的速度“较年初显著放缓”。这一放缓很大程度上反映了由于移民和劳动力参与率下降导致劳动力增长的下降，尽管劳动力需求显然也有所放缓。
• Hiring and Layoffs: While slowing, the market is not in distress, as "both layoffs and hiring remain low."
• 招聘与裁员： 虽然放缓，但市场并未陷入困境，因为“裁员和招聘均保持低位”。
• Labor Market Perceptions: Both household and firm perceptions of job availability and hiring difficulty "continue to decline," reinforcing the cooling trend.
• 劳动力市场认知： 家庭和企业对就业可用性和招聘难度的感知“持续下降”，强化了降温趋势。
A primary concern motivating the policy decision is the Committee's judgment that "the downside risks to employment appear to have risen in recent months."
促使该政策决定的主要关注点是委员会认为 “近几个月来就业风险似乎有所上升”的判断。
2.3 Inflation Dynamics
2.3 通胀动态
While inflation has "eased significantly from its highs in mid-2022," it "remains somewhat elevated" relative to the Federal Reserve's long-run 2% objective.
虽然通胀“较 2022 年中期的高点已显著放缓”，但 相对于美联储长期 2%目标 ，通胀“仍略高”。
• Total PCE Prices (12-month): Rose 2.8% as of the last report in September.
• PCE 总价格（12 个月）： 截至 9 月最新报告上涨 2.8%。
• Core PCE Prices (12-month): Excluding food and energy, core inflation also rose 2.8%
• 核心 PCE 价格（12 个月）：剔除食品和能源，核心通胀也上涨了 2.8%.
The Committee identified conflicting forces within the inflation data. An increase in "inflation for goods... reflecting the effects of tariffs" has pushed recent readings higher. In contrast, "disinflation appears to be continuing for services," suggesting underlying price pressures in that key sector may be abating. On a positive note, near-term measures of inflation expectations "have declined," and most longer-term measures "remain consistent with our 2% inflation goal."
委员会指出通胀数据存在矛盾因素。“商品通胀......”的上升反映关税的影响 “推高了近期的读数。相比之下，“服务业的通胀似乎仍在持续”， 表明该关键行业的潜在价格压力可能正在缓解。积极的一面是，近期通胀预期指标“已下降”，大多数长期指标“仍与我们的 2%通胀目标保持一致”。
This assessment of current conditions provides the foundation for the Committee's forward-looking projections and its analysis of the risks ahead.
对当前状况的评估为委员会前瞻性预测和未来风险分析奠定了基础。
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3.0 Forward Outlook and Balance of Risks
3.0 前瞻性与风险平衡
The strategic importance of the FOMC's decisions lies not just in its immediate actions but also in its forward guidance and economic projections. This section examines the Committee's outlook for key economic variables and articulates how an evolving balance of risks is shaping its policy approach.
FOMC 决策的战略重要性不仅体现在其即时行动，还体现在前瞻性指导和经济预测上。本节审视委员会对关键经济变量的展望，阐述风险平衡的演变如何塑造其政策方法。
3.1 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)
3.1 经济预测摘要（SEP）
The median projections from FOMC participants outline a baseline scenario for the U.S. economy over the next two years.
FOMC 参与者的中位数预测勾勒出未来两年美国经济的基线情景。
| Economic Variable 经济变量 | 2025 Projection 2025年预测 | 2026 Projection 2026年预测 |
|---|---|---|
| Real GDP Growth 实际 GDP 增长 | 1.7% | 2.3% |
| Unemployment Rate 失业率 | 4.5% | Projected to edge down 预计将逐渐下降 |
| Total PCE Inflation 个人生活成本（PCE）总通胀率 | 2.9% | 2.4% |
3.2 Future Policy Path and Stance
3.2 未来政策路径与立场
The Committee believes the recent series of rate cuts "should help stabilize the labor market while allowing inflation to resume its downward trend toward 2% once the effects of tariffs have passed." This has brought the policy stance into what is considered "a range of plausible estimates of neutral."
委员会认为，近期一系列降息“应有助于稳定劳动力市场，同时允许通胀在关税影响过后恢复向下 2%的趋势。”这使得该政策立场进入了被视为 “一系列合理中立估计”的范围。
Looking further ahead, the median participant projection for the federal funds rate is 3.4% at the end of 2026 and 3.1% at the end of 2027
展望更远的地区，联邦基金利率的中位参与者预测为2026年底3.4%，2027年底为3.1%.
However, it is critical to note the Committee's caveat that these projections are "not a committee plan or decision." Policy is "not on a preset course" and will be adjusted on a meeting-by-meeting basis in response to incoming data.
然而，必须注意委员会声明这些预测 “不是委员会的计划或决定”。 政策“ 并非按预定路线进行”，将根据每次会议根据新数据进行调整。
3.3 The Evolving Balance of Risks
3.3 风险平衡的演变
The central tension guiding the FOMC's current policy is the judgment that "risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment to the downside." The Committee views this as "a challenging situation" and acknowledges that "there is no risk-free path for policy."
联邦公开市场委员会当前政策的核心张力是“ 通胀风险偏向上行，就业风险向下倾斜”的判断。 委员会认为这是“一个具有挑战性的局面”，并承认“政策没有无风险的路径”。
A reasonable base case is that the effects of tariffs on inflation will be relatively short-lived, effectively a one-time shift in the price level. The Committee's rationale for easing policy hinges on its view that "the balance of risks has shifted." This is due to the observation that "downside risks to employment having risen in recent months." In this context, the Committee judged it "appropriate at this meeting to lower our policy rate" to strike a more balanced approach between its dual mandate goals.
一个合理的基础是，关税对通胀的影响将相对短暂，实际上是物价水平的一次性转变。委员会支持放宽政策的理由基于其观点，即 “风险的平衡已经发生变化”。 这是因为观察到 “近几个月就业的下行风险有所上升”。 在此背景下，委员会认为“在本次会议上适当降低我们的政策利率”，以便在双重使命目标之间达成更平衡的方案。
The Committee's management of these risks relies on a robust framework for implementing its policy decisions.
委员会对这些风险的管理依赖于一个稳健的框架来实施其政策决策。
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4.0 Framework for Monetary Policy Implementation
4.0 货币政策实施框架
It is essential to distinguish between the stance of monetary policy (the target interest rate) and its implementation (the technical mechanics of achieving that target). The newly initiated Treasury purchase program falls squarely into the latter category, designed to ensure the smooth functioning of the financial system.
区分货币政策的立场 （目标利率）和其执行 （实现该目标的技术机制 ）至关重要 。新启动的国债采购计划正好属于后者，旨在确保金融体系的顺畅运作。
Maintaining an Ample Reserves Regime
维持充足的储备制度
The Federal Reserve's operational goal is to maintain an "ample" supply of reserves in the banking system. After a period of decline, the Committee judged that reserve balances have now "declined to ample levels." The new purchase program is designed to keep them there. In an ample reserves regime, short-term interest rates are "primarily controlled by the setting of our administered rates rather than day-to-day discretionary interventions."
美联储的运营目标是保持银行系统中“充足”的准备金供应。经过一段下降期后，委员会判断储备余额现已 “降至充足水平”。 新购房计划旨在让他们留在那里。在充裕准备金制度中，短期利率 “主要由我们管理的利率设定来控制，而非日常的自由裁量干预。”
The Role of Reserve Management Purchases and Repo Operations
储备管理采购与回购作的角色
The tools for maintaining this framework are both proactive and reactive.
维护该框架的工具既有主动也有被动。
• Treasury Purchases: These purchases are necessary because "the growth of the economy leads to rising demand over time for our liabilities," such as currency in circulation and bank reserves. The purchases ensure the supply of reserves grows alongside the economy. They may also "remain elevated for a few months to alleviate expected near-term pressures in money markets."
• 国债购买： 这些采购是必要的，因为 “经济增长导致对负债的需求随时间上升”， 如流通中的货币和银行储备。这些采购确保储备供应与经济同步增长。它们也可能“维持高点几个月，以缓解预期的短期货币市场压力。”
• Repo Operations: Standing repurchase agreement (repo) operations serve as a backstop, acting as a "critical tool to ensure that the federal funds rate remains within its target range," especially during periods of market stress. In a significant operational change, the Committee has "eliminated the aggregate limit on standing repo operations," reinforcing this facility's role as a reliable liquidity source.
• 回购作： 常设回购协议（回购协议）作作为后备方案，作为 “确保联邦基金利率保持在目标区间的关键工具”， 尤其是在市场压力时期。在一项重大运营变革中，委员会 “取消了常备回购作的总额限制”， 强化了该设施作为可靠流动性来源的角色。
This technical framework is the foundation that allows the Federal Reserve to focus on its ultimate public mission.
这一技术框架是美联储能够专注于其最终公共使命的基础。
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5.0 Conclusion: Commitment to the Dual Mandate
5.0 结论：对双重使命的承诺
In conclusion, the Federal Open Market Committee's recent actions reflect a careful and proactive approach to managing a challenging economic landscape. By adjusting both its policy rate and its implementation tools, the Fed has reaffirmed its unwavering commitment to its two mandated goals: maximum employment and stable prices. Everything we do is in service to our public mission at the Fed, as we work to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals for the benefit of communities, families, and businesses across the country.
总之，联邦公开市场委员会近期的行动反映了对应对复杂经济环境的谨慎和积极态度。通过调整政策利率和实施工具，美联储重申了其对两项既定目标的坚定承诺： 最大就业和稳定物价。 我们所做的一切都是为了实现美联储的公共使命，努力实现最大化就业和物价稳定的目标，造福全国各地的社区、家庭和企业。